Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.145225 0.171559 0.202378 0.241386 0.289833 0.348535 4.258264e-01
2025-08-31 0.111719 0.143441 0.184583 0.242818 0.324719 0.438279 6.121673e-01
2025-09-07 0.089800 0.123746 0.171861 0.247145 0.366020 0.553927 8.897466e-01
2025-09-14 0.073612 0.107978 0.160730 0.251313 0.411200 0.699440 1.306045e+00
2025-09-21 0.059543 0.092121 0.145706 0.245676 0.441229 0.841248 1.834968e+00
2025-09-28 0.045064 0.072486 0.119952 0.214245 0.414076 0.866778 2.161545e+00
2025-10-05 0.038784 0.065276 0.113977 0.218336 0.462600 1.093638 3.279062e+00
2025-10-12 0.034432 0.060556 0.111506 0.229344 0.535184 1.446398 5.386879e+00
2025-10-19 0.030422 0.055633 0.107487 0.236144 0.604517 1.869043 8.803086e+00
2025-10-26 0.027124 0.051431 0.103978 0.243447 0.683499 2.432419 1.494660e+01
2025-11-02 0.023637 0.046141 0.096801 0.238978 0.726263 2.932399 2.334491e+01
2025-11-09 0.020334 0.040630 0.087839 0.226555 0.736271 3.322512 3.383700e+01
2025-11-16 0.018234 0.037526 0.084312 0.230236 0.818573 4.315906 6.412618e+01
2025-11-23 0.016405 0.034700 0.080839 0.233177 0.906004 5.616166 1.297807e+02
2025-11-30 0.014924 0.032424 0.078292 0.238636 1.016735 7.524946 3.028994e+02
2025-12-07 0.013628 0.030357 0.075831 0.243759 1.138157 10.149166 8.131394e+02
2025-12-14 0.012233 0.027788 0.071302 0.239228 1.204905 12.641261 2.080105e+03
2025-12-21 0.010380 0.023739 0.061483 0.209406 1.083596 12.071343 2.686835e+03
2025-12-28 0.009618 0.022463 0.059899 0.213916 1.207349 16.432719 1.223810e+04
2026-01-04 0.009082 0.021702 0.059766 0.225116 1.404902 24.491438 1.661905e+05
2026-01-11 0.008511 0.020747 0.058773 0.232158 1.589244 35.376442 2.030444e+07
2026-01-18 0.008002 0.019883 0.057894 0.239646 1.801750 52.339861 NaN
2026-01-25 0.007365 0.018545 0.055043 0.235531 1.895618 67.695893 NaN